The equilibrium exchange rates of European currencies and the transition to euro

This study estimates the demand system using Japanese micro data and calculates the cost of living index (COLI) to assess the substitution bias in the Consumer Price Index. The estimated bias during the sample period of 1982–2000 is about 0.06 percentage points, which is larger than the estimates calculated from a superlative index. The difference between the COLI and a superlative index can be explained with the upward movements of the average utility level in Japan, since the cost of living for the rich has grown more rapidly than that for the poor.     

Relationship between Perceived Risk,Evaluation, Satisfaction,and Behavioral Intention: A Case of Local-Festival Visitors

This study analyzes the relationship between perceived risk, evaluation, satisfaction, and behavioral intention of tourists attending a local festival. Based on a survey with a sample of 465 respondents attending a local festival in South Korea, a structural equation model (SEM) is proposed that involves festival-related perceived risk, perceptual evaluation, overall satisfaction, and behavioral intention for future attendance at this and other festivals. Firstly, the results show that while risk may lead to a negative perception of a festival, it has no effect on satisfaction or subsequent behavioral intention. Secondly, the results show that direct causality exists between perception, satisfaction and future intention. Thirdly, a demand for diversity in programs determines perceptions of risk, which in turn permits a segmentation of visitors based on these characteristics. The findings of this study contribute to successful planning and marketing strategies to meet the demands of psychologically segmented tourists, especially in festival studies.     

Measuring portfolio strategic performance using key performance indicators

It is difficult to find indicators for measuring the achievement of objectives during the progress of project portfolios. This article presents an approach for developing key strategic perfor‐mance indicators considering this limitation. The indicators proposed help measure the achievement of a portfolio's strategic objectives taking into account the realization of key benefits. This approach helps identify strategic interdependences between projects that the portfolio is composed of, facilitating the understanding of how the performance of a single project affects the overall performance of a portfolio. The key perfor‐mance indicators can also be used for monitoring the materialization of risks and opportunities influencing the strategic performance of a portfolio.     

公益林补偿标准研究:一个超边际经济学框架

介绍了中国公益林补偿标准的研究现状,并且新构建了一个超边际经济学框架用于分析公益林补偿问题。文章通过设定分工模型,对林农的个人决策模式和均衡结构进行分析,最后提出结论:在一定前提条件下:补偿标准和人口总数成正比;和转移支付效率成反比(存在层层截留补偿款);和公益林总面积成反比。并根据以上的比较静态研究推测指出补偿公益林的标准应该是介于"完全自给自足的林业经济结构U(Ayz)"和"完全专业化的生产公益林的结构U(B1)"之间。这个分析框架可以用来帮助分析公益林补偿的诸多问题,为政府合理制定补偿标准提供理论依据。     

酸性蚀刻废液中铜的形态分布及电化学行为

在氯化物体系中，Cu^＋、Cu^2＋均能与Cl^-形成多种形态的配合物，存在形态及分布与溶液中各离子浓度有关。由于各种配合物的稳定性不同，致使Cu^＋、Cu^2＋氯化物的溶解度及电极电位也不同。对酸性蚀刻废液中铜的存在形态、电化学行为、以及采用隔膜电解法回收工艺的可行性进行了分析。     

Benchmarking Risk Management Within the International Water Utility Sector. Part I: Design of a Capability Maturity Methodology

Risk management in the water utility sector is becoming increasingly explicit. However, due to the novelty and complexity of the discipline, utilities are encountering difficulties in defining and institutionalising their risk management processes. In response, the authors have developed a sector specific capability maturity methodology for benchmarking and improving risk management. The research, conducted in consultation with water utility practitioners, has distilled risk management into a coherent, process‐based framework. We identified eleven risk management processes, and eight key attributes with characterise the extent to which these processes are defined, controlled and institutionalised. Implementation of the model should enable utilities to more effectively employ their portfolio of risk analysis techniques for optimal, credible and defensible decision making.     

Managing toxic chemicals in Australia: a regional analysis of the risk society

The paper takes examples from two decades of toxic risk management in Australia in order to examine the challenges that the conditions of the ‘risk society’ pose for the chemicals industry in this country. These issues for corporate governance are set against a shift in political discourse in the direction of the limiting of the state, co‐governance between state and industry, and new community involvements and responsibilities. The paper describes new social movements and alliances influencing corporate structures and processes for decision making in Australia. The case examples lead to conclusions concerning the fundamental innovations in the organizational design of regulatory bodies and corporations that are required if progress is to be made towards sustainability and the re‐establishment of public trust. The findings of this paper are symptomatic of the more general challenges that the ‘risk society’ poses for the mainstream political programmes and their frameworks for regulation, for corporate architecture and for the relationships between governments, corporations and the community.     

Determinants of smallholder farmers' perceptions of risk in the Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia

This paper reports findings from a study of 178 farm households from two contrasting areas in the Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia. It examines risk perceptions of smallholder farmers under varying contexts. The study utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis. It was hypothesized that human capital and household characteristics and orientation, access to resources, infrastructure, information and environmental factors influence perceptions of risks in different ways. Data reduction for independent variables was done by factor analysis (principal component extraction method). Factor analyses identified factors influencing smallholder farmers' perceptions of sources of risks. Logistic regression analyses were used to study the relationships of identified principal components to perceived frequencies of occurrences and consequences of various sources of risks. Logistic regression analyses revealed that asset endowments, locational settings and livelihood diversification strategies pursued determine smallholders' perceived risks. Key findings from the informal survey point out differentiation in perceptions of causes and sources of risks by different actors.     

Gibbs posterior inference on value-at-risk

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) and assessment of associated uncertainty is crucial for both insurers and regulators, particularly in Europe. Existing approaches link data and VaR indirectly by first linking data to the parameter of a probability model, and then expressing VaR as a function of that parameter. This indirect approach exposes the insurer to model misspecification bias or estimation inefficiency, depending on whether the parameter is finite- or infinite-dimensional. In this paper, we link data and VaR directly via what we call a discrepancy function, and this leads naturally to a Gibbs posterior distribution for VaR that does not suffer from the aforementioned biases and inefficiencies. Asymptotic consistency and root-n concentration rate of the Gibbs posterior are established, and simulations highlight its superior finite-sample performance compared to other approaches.     

Litigation risk,accounting quality,and investment efficiency

This paper examines the moderating effect of litigation risk on the relationship between accounting quality and investment efficiency. We use directors’ and officers’ (D&O) liability insurance as a proxy for litigation risk, accruals quality for accounting quality, and investment cash flow sensitivity for investment efficiency (Biddle & Hilary, 2006; Hovakimian & Hovakimian, 2009). Using Canadian data from 1998 to 2008, we show that firms with higher D&O insurance coverage exhibit lower quality accruals. Moreover, the previously documented negative association between accruals quality and investment cash flow sensitivity is stronger (weaker) when abnormal D&O coverage is low (high), suggesting that the role of accounting quality in facilitating investment efficiency is conditional upon observable litigation risk.